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Weps

World Conflict Thread

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Unconfirmed reports that United States Department Of Defense has raised it's "Force Protection Level" for all CONUS (Continental United States) military installations and facilities.

This is the only FPCON I have found and it is raised.

 

http://www.lee.army.mil/dptms/ioc/force.protection.condition.aspx

 

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Russian aircraft (bombers and intelligence aircraft) have penetrated US airspace in sixteen separate incidents over a period of ten days.

 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/7/russian-bombers-penetrated-us-airspace-least-16-ti/

 

 

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NORAD Drill Over Phoenix Skies Tomorrow 8/12/14

 

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/2014/08/10/norad-conducting-practice-over-phoenix/13863379/

 

 

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So supposedly Ukrainian Forces claimed to have attacked a Russian armored convoy shuttling military equipment into Ukraine ala an invasion. 

 

The same still photo of a convoy, which with there are no visible markings, is floating around. Now that isn't to say the Ukrainians are lying. The Russians are famous for their slight of hand and trickery, such as Spetsnaz sent into lead and organize the Separatists and cause general havoc (confirmed by Putin). However the Ruskie's claim no such thing occurred, which could mean indeed that it didn't occurred or the Russian's are lying to prevent NATO from becoming even more involved.

What was a telling sign that things are getting heated is the deployment of the 493rd Fighter Squadron to Bulgaria and the 1st Battalion, 1 Cavalry Division compromising of 600 personnel with accompanying materiel (tanks, IFV/BFV, APC, ect...) being deployed to Poland.

NATO has stated any incursion into a NATO ally nations territory by Russian Forces would be considered an invasion, to which NATO would respond militarily. It's been really unclear exactly what they're conveying, Ukraine was granted a pseudo-ally status, but isn't a NATO nation. So that could be a direct warning to Russia to keep out of Ukraine, or more so an actual ally such as Poland.

Putin has openly expressed interest in various other nations with heavy ethnic Russian populations, such as Latvia, Estonia, ect... feeling they may be being oppressed. Basically the same reasoning and excuses for invading Crimea.

 

The Russian's have made their chess move in response to US/NATO assets being put into play in the Baltic States. Russia and China (and believed to be other BRICS allies as well) are preforming the largest joint military exercise ever seen in Asia, concentrating heavily on Air Defense/Anti-Air capabilities, such as the S-300 and S-400, some of the newest air defense/anti-air systems Russia has.  

 

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Anti-Air means they're bulwarking against US involvement, right? Iirc we have the largest airforce by far, and it's a large part of our "superior technology and overwhelming force" aka "shock and awe" approach.

 

Little Column A, Little Column B.

 

You can't look at this like the brushfire conflicts we've been dicking around with the past decade.

 

We've got a huge air force, Russia's is about at the half mark, comparatively. Factor in China's air force bolstering Russia's, they're a competent contender who can deal some damage.

 

The biggest fault we have is, while we have a nice and big air force it's stretched across the globe. We can't stop missions elsewhere and dedicate those aircraft to another mission all together. We'd really put ourselves into a mess.

 

It's like our aircraft carriers, we've got 10, but at least 8 are tied up covering an AO ensuring peace, providing support, chasing pirates, ect... so in reality we only have 2 we can dedicate to a"new" conflict area.

 

Russia isn't Iraq or Afghanistan. They maintain a professional, well trained military, they have competent pilots in a sizeable air force, the only other country to have a competitive system to GPS, they maintain a sizeable navy, and have the world's largest stockpile on nuclear weapons, they're land forces capability is gargantuan (22,000 tanks alone, we top out at 6,000), they just don't have the personnel with their 2008 reduction, but with a US/NATO military action against Russia, they'd have volunteers flooding their recruiting offices.

 

You'd be surprised, they can do some of their own shocking and awing.

 

Edited by Weps
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Damn it's been forever;

 

So here's the line-up since Nov. of last year. 

 

 

Russia-Ukraine

 

------------------------------

 

Ah, Russia has pseudo-invaded Ukraine via SF units and undesignated "volunteers" that are "aiding" the Separatists.

 

To kind of help differentiate;

 

NAF is "United Armed Forces of Novorossiya" aka "Novorossiya Armed Forces", this is the Separatists. Militarily, they're a combination of the "Donbass People's Militia" and "LPR People's Militia".

 

 

Novorossiya (also know as "Union of People's Republics") is the literal translation of "New Russia", it's first use was during the 1770's as part of the Russian Empire's territory in Crimea.

 

They want to be a separate state, or in this case they want the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Lugansk People's Republic" to be recognized, which would fall under Russian control, similar to that of Chechnya. 

 

Novorossiya boasts political leanings of the Far-Right Wing Nationalists of the New Russia Party, it also has allies of the Eurasian Party (which is Russian political party that is heavily associated with "National Bolshevism"). 

 

Multiple flags are associated with NAF, to include the Russian Federation colors, Soviet Victory Banner, Soviet Naval Ensign, Ukrainian SSR flag (Soviet flag), Flag of Novorossiya, various territorial flags, and assorted battalion/army flags of the various battalions within the militias. 

 

Russia has actively and openly been sending GRU/VDV Spetsnaz (Special Forces) and undesignated personnel claiming to be "Volunteers" to aid and training the NAF. It has also regularly supplied front-line equipment, to include state-of-the-art anti-aircraft systems, artillery systems, counter-battery radar (radar that detects incoming artillery), weapons, munitions, tanks, APCs, IFVs, ect... 

 

Shit is such a mess media has been unable to discern if clearly marked and designated Russian Federation Forces have invaded at this point. Based on NATO action, it would seem it would be the case or is close at hand. 

 

 

 

 

-------------------------------

 

On the flip side, you have the Ukrainian Armed Forces, commonly referred to as "Ukies" or "UAF", which consists of;

 

- The "Ministry of Internal Affairs" which is professional Ukraine police forces and internal troops, seriously corrupt and small in numbers.

 

- The "Ukrainian National Guard" which consists of six light infantry battalions, with some mechanized and armor companies mixed in.

 

The "Ukrainian Ground Forces" which are professional military made up of of three separate "Corps" consisting of armor, artillery, mechanized, aviation, airborne and airmobile brigades. 

 

The "Security Service of Ukraine" which is mostly federal law enforcement/internal security and counter-Intel groups, possibly some Clandestine units, all small in numbers. 

 

The "Right Sector" which is the Far-Right Nationalist Paramilitary part of Euromaidan, small in numbers, but has brought on retired Ukrainian military commanders and has decent training and experience. 

 

Of course, Ukraine is in any way possible receiving NATO support, to include our international intelligence apparatus, clandestine support (read CIA/OGA), and training from US Military "advisers". 

 

 

Other Baltic States are building up forces as quickly as they can muster, begging for NATO assistance.  

 

 

NATO (read US) is slamming on the breaks, canceling base/facility closures in Europe, moving personnel, vehicles, and materiel back into Eastern Europe, preparing for a possible inevitable Russian Offensive. We're seeing movement of equipment like we haven't seen since the Cold War. 

 

 

 

Mid-East

---------------------

 

Shit is still off the chain if Syria, getting even more "cra-cra" by the day. 

 

Currently LHD-7 and LHD-8 which are carrying the 11th MEU and 24th MEU (MEU: Marine Expeditionary Unit) respectively and are sitting off Yemen's coast in the Gulf of Aden, SF/Rangers and US assets are just across the Gulf of Aden at Camp Leonier in Djibouti, and Saudi South Forces sit on Yemen's Northern border. 

 

Yemen has fallen to Iranian Houthi rebels, which are Shia insurgents. This is significant because with the death of the King of Saudi Arabia, it kick starts their prophecy, which ends with Iran marching through Saudi Arabian, taking Iraq and Syria (resulting in the death of Assad), moving across Jordan and stopping at Israel's doorstep. The taking of Yemen would present Iran with a unique opportunity to not only bottleneck the Strait of Hormuz, but the Suez Canal and Red Sea. 

 

Now, Iran alone could not take on the Kingdom of Saud, nor regionally placed US assets. However, with their recent Military Pact with Russia, it presents a serious problem, specifically considering Russia is willing to provide Iran with S-300 and S-400 Anti-Aircraft Systems. 

 

For a short breakdown on the S-300/S-400, it's the hottest thing in AA currently out, it also has the ability to detect and take out stealth aircraft through the use of various systems. It's a multi-weapons platform covering everything from simple MANPADS to EXTREME high altitude threats all in a single autonomous unit, rather than separate systems, in separate units, attached at the brigade or battalion level. 

 

If that itself isn't depressing enough, the Iranian's have ENORMOUS stockpiles of HY-1/HY-1 "Silkworm", AM39 "Exocet", and P-15 "Termit" Anti-Ship Missiles. These in themselves are hard for US Naval assets to dispatch, the Gulf War and USS Stark incident being good indicators of such. With commercial vessels having little, to no counter-measures, either electronic or physical all it would take is a single sinking of an oil tanker for companies to have their insurance for ships in those area revoked, causing oil to skyrocket, giving the Iranians an international stranglehold. This would require US/NATO Forces to escort all vessel traffic through bough straits, to which US Naval assets would be vulnerable to not only conventional anti-ship missiles, but the possibility of anti-ship missiles with nuclear payloads, which could theoretically disable the entire Carrier Strike Force. 

 

Adding in the S-300/S-400 systems, the Iranians could lock down the entire region, throwing the Western world into economic turmoil.

 

 

 

United States - Russian Tensions

----------------------------

 

It's no secret that tensions between the US and RF have been exceedingly high, the the point of match that of the Cold War. 

 

What is a disconcerting notion is the dilapidated state of US Nuclear Strategic Forces. 

 

The US Air Force is rushing to update it's E-4B NAOC "Doomsday Planes" (National Airborne Operations Command), which are the front-line command section after the National Command Authority (President, Vice, JCOS, SecDef, ect...). The E-4B is some damned important and tensions so high, an E-4B is constantly airborne, with an additional E-4B always on standby, no more than 200mi from the President at any given time, even during international trips.

 

US Trident-II SLBM are in disrepair, reports of leaks from the cores occurring, which brings serious question to if they're actually capable of not only detonating if fired, but if they'll actually launch. 

 

The "air delivered" portion of the Us Nuclear Triad which considers of B61 and B83 bombs, has desperately needed upgrades and maintenance, but with the continued Congressional denial of funding, they sorely lack the ability to penetrate targets or effectively detonate.

The US land-based systems, the LGM-30 "Minuteman III" which consists of 450 single warhead missiles has suffered serious delays in their upgrades, including Radiation-resistant RAM and updated navigational systems.

 

Worst of all, strategic missile wing personnel have suffered extreme morale issues, being repeatedly debuted in the media for drug scandals and sex rings. This stemming from a dead end career path and a command structure that has been ultimately deemed "unfit for command". Most people don't consider these overly large of an issue, however, the mental state of our "key-turners" as it were, is the most important issue. If they lack the will or fortitude to actually launch when the time comes, we lose any strategic edge we may have. 

 

Meanwhile, Russia is operating with a full-deck, updated and newer ICBM systems on line, with competent and well-trained rocket forces personnel. 

 

Russia has even revived it's Cold War era Civil Defense Program, building new and reinforcing older fallout and bomb shelters, stockpiling meds, food, and even weapons. The US Civil Defense Program has been defunct now for nearly 20 years, with no plans or legislation to reenact the program or rejuvenate existing shelter infrastructure.

Russian Fighter and Bomber activity within US and NATO territories has been over 10x in the past year, rivaling that of the Cold War days. 

 

The most recent bomber flyover of the UK, resulted in the detect on an active nuclear weapon on-board the Tu-95v. 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/555454/Intercepted-Russian-bomber-was-carrying-a-nuclear-missile-over-the-Channel

 

 

 

 

--------------- UPDATE


Vice News: Trying to Flee Debaltseve: Russian Roulette (Dispatch 90) 

 

 

(Translated) RT: FIRST IMAGES: A projectile hits in a hospital in Donetsk at least 5 dead

 

 

-----------------------

 

Recent Headlines:

 

- Ukraine Crisis: 15 feared dead as shelling hits Donetsk hospital

 

- US Considers Providing Antitank Missiles To Ukrainian Military To Help Deter Rebels
 
- Herbst: "The Russian Government Has Shown No Interest in a Diplomatic Settlement"
 
- US endorses creation of Kosovo armed forces
 
- The Pentagon Hopes to Contain Russia on the Cheap
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